current parameter status : 
sigma 2.0972 False
beta 0.97 False
phi 0.3041 False
psi 0.1689 False
delta_h1 -1.3948 True
delta_h2 4.311 True
eta 0.0 False
tfp 0.7954 True
price 0.8917 True
risk 0.0 False
-- 
number of parameters:  10
number of free parameters:  4
current parameter status : 
sigma 2.0972 False
beta 0.97 False
phi 0.3041 False
psi 0.1689 False
delta_h1 -1.3948 True
delta_h2 4.311 True
eta 0.0 False
tfp 0.7954 True
price 0.8917 True
risk 0.0 False
- using these moments:
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.0028589543192395974
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.003643700780684088
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.04325931942694289
grad2 1.0527310940896781 0.021387151314867122
grad3 1.0655399446658953 0.02204949645933151
grad4 1.077596374284592 0.020756371851644063
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.007039205768529589
f =  43.76558751003683 , pars =  [-1.39479202  4.31099113  0.7954149   0.89168889]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08338714036714336
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865797581478801
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.43077411130172505
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0073504128920043
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.013579802681796
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.021178919242374
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8066840355011062
f =  57.45080128395179 , pars =  [-1.29479202  4.31099113  0.7954149   0.89168889]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.07939200257587052
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865797581478801
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.4817578818375631
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0067466818723518
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0121510522072346
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0181415939280372
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8054640201387232
f =  48.56821128245811 , pars =  [-1.39479202  4.41099113  0.7954149   0.89168889]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.0781429316333674
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9878568630131084
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.3891905271883248
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0064229219174101
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0120048031219986
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0193713122349288
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8048948116063207
f =  1111.0822174837253 , pars =  [-1.39479202  4.31099113  0.8954149   0.89168889]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.06595321689261133
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865797581478807
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.5508474098764594
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0076459055738798
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0132382543329195
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0180201651792535
tfp 0.7979621824232888 1.0201184790041604
f =  45.95726397870204 , pars =  [-1.39479202  4.31099113  0.7954149   0.99168889]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08972407066170275
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865797581478805
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.45394938683408687
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0084750998973713
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0159117898689645
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0224378833227288
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7991361303843111
f =  43.57622820882773 , pars =  [-1.49479202  4.31099113  0.7954149   0.89168889]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08587091282343
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865797581478811
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.44055676325891757
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0078378230769072
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0132420107841926
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0188093800526166
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.798828356136271
f =  49.82702805309814 , pars =  [-1.39479202  4.21099113  0.7954149   0.89168889]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.09177375051194737
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9851683389914963
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.46306806419661384
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0065142494985213
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0117729941969098
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.017982695278838
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7945003553716865
f =  762.6258400461099 , pars =  [-1.39479202  4.31099113  0.6954149   0.89168889]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.11636785391274193
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865797581478819
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.22740008810440032
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0075909808983994
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0147945797829403
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.026726779789867
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.6234267049064502
f =  56.49600653681111 , pars =  [-1.39479202  4.31099113  0.7954149   0.79168889]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.07557992837950249
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865797581478797
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.4472293798728563
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.00865051998775
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0152316490848978
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0224448310451
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.792054752520215
f =  48.484742967945145 , pars =  [-1.44805436  4.31548302  0.78566065  0.92920951]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.09595268385516438
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9866399052982214
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.3255885696599842
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0075405005157396
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.014132631991547
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0238912351313936
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7841088975250453
f =  39.49121416030104 , pars =  [-1.52134597  4.3063843   0.78575144  0.85069764]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08773128595695615
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.986517790778916
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.39468479570221165
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0071404372219772
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0133905762068718
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0214859434061785
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7880169258633257
f =  47.77872672463167 , pars =  [-1.55608222  4.31659837  0.78928965  0.88499847]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08690700691353655
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9866547980948727
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.4574825080684264
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0078068823173179
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0131837193346995
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.018502991218718
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7905845473935305
f =  43.60511686024738 , pars =  [-1.52400806  4.30640028  0.79774696  0.84840185]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08375792438197024
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865180062315282
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.43970550049674495
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.007455663713327
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0137241257976368
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0210686146220282
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8025952555336207
f =  43.295626964794955 , pars =  [-1.49762536  4.29947293  0.7890246   0.85266034]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08977380122235834
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9864242874840066
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.3730075527344509
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.007587494281723
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0142631139718654
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0232062134920508
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.779096412747809
f =  40.91941419122116 , pars =  [-1.52637142  4.29790906  0.78613479  0.85236145]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.09188310868752593
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9864030403010511
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.3466737033373641
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0075369678444455
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0138751229182004
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.022790173039047
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7843341511727866
f =  36.592555232836226 , pars =  [-1.52502307  4.31060714  0.78830605  0.84281598]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08657107348912778
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865746039491013
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.38280903710293107
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0067708321009228
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0127141534341717
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0208110533327004
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7957263746878832
f =  37.93690732275835 , pars =  [-1.53105791  4.31786857  0.7896547   0.83981041]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08709618825532489
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9866717384447237
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.37418846493529134
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.007025818206272
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0131857615218496
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0215484112609015
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7875734887490772
f =  41.448642358386735 , pars =  [-1.53342845  4.30881643  0.79242228  0.83978291]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08432870843620394
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.98655054139523
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.41515664855788204
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.006773746814671
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0126179913847904
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.019961090099224
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8054760735550925
f =  39.264572167653796 , pars =  [-1.51919033  4.3143198   0.7890953   0.83563459]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08621039606964577
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9866243555429862
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.3861204598560478
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.007117191640788
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0133590603304932
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0216611737583274
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.786075896088704
f =  37.71308756219795 , pars =  [-1.53084879  4.31195149  0.7875131   0.8507925 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08784984070738988
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865926402260171
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.38126456883218984
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0070170969307748
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0132478862486054
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0218208319942466
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7899301639259854
f =  37.91719488751982 , pars =  [-1.52020288  4.30200085  0.78856821  0.84119462]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08670955336201205
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9864585624381378
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.39477717842535415
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0068939057951485
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0129575219405578
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0211604854417935
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7922065785360118
f =  37.467597855574326 , pars =  [-1.5255708   4.31506156  0.78812852  0.84501293]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08654435765207279
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9866342733306868
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.38692793232565403
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0068749616288566
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0129424042141015
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0211484434930698
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7923405197619166
f =  37.146421689045944 , pars =  [-1.52484162  4.31062064  0.78943579  0.84310094]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08651885536673706
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865747852267667
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.3882427624305515
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0069114337303682
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0130062883040631
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.021222848864644
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7937134642875274
f =  36.947621189646185 , pars =  [-1.52666999  4.31002371  0.78670195  0.84202597]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08687044255826418
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865667688999958
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.38108177203523863
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.007344587679667
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.013714273817252
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0221983873683997
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7901007927360454
f =  39.29332956902952 , pars =  [-1.52460593  4.31034933  0.78797275  0.84362124]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08782731094834831
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.986571142290151
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.3795143151371149
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0071811280631242
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0135158380002423
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0220678427226393
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7852830842996513
f =  36.66140121990919 , pars =  [-1.52552487  4.31085237  0.78855972  0.84202623]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08687347448055023
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865778959094473
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.381361232757191
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0071569924052617
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0131950642626375
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0216138969479396
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7924526321378156
f =  39.880595570451284 , pars =  [-1.52582053  4.31044527  0.78845345  0.84337824]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08748737526706063
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865724306586713
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.386655971893296
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0072211368351385
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0134869154037194
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.02160013227137
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7853160079805964
f =  37.59213820942901 , pars =  [-1.52433244  4.31075576  0.78815039  0.84212554]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08638741297607073
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865765991167629
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.3907889269305477
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0069005193844285
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0129914277644243
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0212761590099657
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7925491845551446
f =  41.18971267267111 , pars =  [-1.52488094  4.30965386  0.78843192  0.84258101]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08872215768291437
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865617996678342
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.3692583609876625
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0072026923445194
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.013514730516116
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0221162921308253
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7815252405343945
f =  37.87072816802669 , pars =  [-1.5251119   4.311586    0.78812193  0.84281058]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08764973226358419
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865877391913378
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.3748753087713924
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.007029876484308
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0131977183275256
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0215981390564632
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7879166899610553
f =  36.89564712024218 , pars =  [-1.5254729   4.31041334  0.7874703   0.84256776]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08699207081605395
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865720018689697
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.37916568239997045
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0068387344490362
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0128498677052056
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0210456906468537
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7919526263302773
f =  38.817423508440555 , pars =  [-1.52472665  4.31100684  0.78899978  0.84267714]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08778069906045825
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865799689673926
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.37536588434972634
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.007599590424473
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0141586916027734
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0228638176689329
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7847148835998127
f =  40.09229689793568 , pars =  [-1.52494283  4.31093456  0.78856572  0.84255343]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.0881552960584028
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865789990311873
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.370949341022919
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0077354539374401
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0144493600097313
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0233822383177902
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7819331795030102
f =  39.32710451742018 , pars =  [-1.52503967  4.31068707  0.78824977  0.84282889]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08550240450291617
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865756770773108
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.40709204123338877
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.006864139329437
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0128384778139528
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0205313504452143
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7935426305829691
f =  37.73806950326347 , pars =  [-1.52498052  4.31044714  0.7884877   0.84277021]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08805227160608982
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865724557959702
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.36844665959877676
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.007516557127013
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0139764298053764
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.022650984573282
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7862621105981146
f =  37.656912688544764 , pars =  [-1.52505544  4.31055798  0.78823137  0.84278503]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08657153606630084
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865739439054891
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.3901222987470003
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0069059902574709
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0130030728511439
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0213044971022858
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7920465654409861
f =  38.41036389100295 , pars =  [-1.52497435  4.31058808  0.78838682  0.84284318]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08753243352474141
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865743481391378
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.38037477660168884
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0071749551201177
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0135016597752668
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0220136997121394
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7870590255786439
f =  38.530935625528244 , pars =  [-1.52498157  4.31057375  0.78826714  0.84289114]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08800809042127969
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865741557207786
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.3712790181391023
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0071434986419028
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0134298094057965
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.021988727764866
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7857643764184609
f =  37.64564608876353 , pars =  [-1.52507356  4.31059642  0.78835191  0.84274365]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.0868172610500622
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865744600083053
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.38731856148312604
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0069119498041514
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0128007779081343
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0206605039937986
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7920954198866968
f =  37.863146248996564 , pars =  [-1.52510041  4.31059221  0.78832305  0.84287519]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08793126232217141
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865744035456211
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.37084500411904797
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0075166909759639
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0139846027726496
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.02275417770842
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7861890521226768
f =  37.52402373458319 , pars =  [-1.52494864  4.31058886  0.78830239  0.84275185]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08670213918026651
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865743585287521
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.3877622706522301
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0069159604954818
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0130161988740571
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0212464133244619
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7918237601436424
f =  38.65463216237694 , pars =  [-1.52501959  4.31051719  0.78834741  0.84280233]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08615478704443677
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865733962847841
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.39845464058935215
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0068130918244103
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0126737433811264
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.020166879387532
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7928382971895745
f =  36.790539216016846 , pars =  [-1.52499431  4.31065761  0.7883571   0.84275258]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08678211591074785
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865752814950369
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.38196370170644056
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0068094067437416
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0127798986120014
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.020906824499019
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7936601521563881
estimation did converge, now computing standard errors...
             value   free        se
name                               
sigma     2.097183  False       NaN
beta      0.970000  False       NaN
phi       0.304140  False       NaN
psi       0.168902  False       NaN
delta_h1 -1.525023   True  0.010842
delta_h2  4.310607   True  0.018808
eta       0.000000  False       NaN
tfp       0.788306   True  0.002891
price     0.843816   True  0.026243
risk      0.000000  False       NaN
